The 2024 Republican field expanded this week with the entry of three new presidential candidates: former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. All three are polling at the bottom of the now nine-candidate field, raising the question: Why would any of them enter a race that seems impossible to win?
The short answer is that they may think they can beat the odds. That might seem delusional given both Pence and Christie are polling in the low single digits, and Burgum is so little-known that he hasn’t even been poll-tested. But they’re holding out hope that they could become the definitive alternative to the current frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is consistently polling in second, flames out.
“For all these guys, it’s a very, very, very steep climb. But if DeSantis stumbles, somebody will fill that vacuum,” said Chris Russell, a GOP strategist based in New Jersey.
That’s not an impossibility given that DeSantis has had a rocky few months. His campaign launch was defined by technical glitches and an overly online message that seemed impenetrable to most rank-and-file Republicans. There are growing concerns among donors that he’s just not that good at retail politics and that he’s already doomed himself among general election voters by embracing right-wing policies on issues such as abortion.
If DeSantis’s issues continue, second-tier GOP candidates — which also include former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and right-wing activist Vivek Ramaswamy — could catch a break. It wouldn’t be the first time a long-shot candidate was suddenly catapulted into viability: At this point in the primary eight years ago, Trump was polling at 1 percent, while Jeb Bush had a double-digit lead and Scott Walker was in second. Walker later dropped out before the Iowa caucuses, the first on the Republican primary calendar,…
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