American economic pessimism has been bafflingly persistent despite major indicators showing that the economy is actually strong. Unemployment is low, inflation is down (if sticky), wages are up, the stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to keep the US out of a recession.
Surveys are beginning to capture growing consumer confidence — but for President Joe Biden, the question is whether it’s rising quickly enough for him to avoid being penalized in the 2024 election.
He had no control over the pandemic-rattled economy he inherited, but voters may nevertheless blame him for it, as they have (rightly or wrongly) blamed their presidents for the country’s economic troubles in the past.
Voters have mentioned economic issues (think: inflation, jobs, and more) as their greatest concern since 2022 in a long-running and ongoing Gallup survey. Another February Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey of voters in swing states also found that the economy is the most important issue — and could therefore decide the outcome of the election.
Recent polls show Trump with an 11- to 20-point edge over Biden on which candidate would better handle the economy. In some ways, this isn’t a surprise: The economy was generally good under Trump, except for the Covid-induced recession; under Biden, high inflation has been the biggest economic story. If Biden is to turn his fortunes around, he’ll have to convince the American public that the economy is in fact better than it feels — and better than they remember under Trump.
“The fundamental problem for Biden and the Democrats is that while the rate of inflation is down, it’s not going backwards,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres said. “It’s hard to persuade people that things are better.”
Americans think the economy is worse under Biden
Americans have been stubbornly downbeat about the economy under Biden, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index hovering between -20…
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