“When we start the counteroffensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it,” top Ukrainian security official Oleksiy Danilov said Wednesday. Danilov was responding to Russian claims that Kyiv had finally — for real, for real — launched its anticipated counteroffensive.
Russia is not alone in speculating about the significance of recent movements of Ukrainian troops. US officials interpreted an intensification of artillery strikes and ground attacks in eastern Ukraine this week as a possible sign of the offensive’s start. On Thursday, Ukrainian troops reportedly stepped up assaults on the frontlines in the southeast, and those attack units had Western-made weapons, which were expected to be deployed in any Ukrainian operation. On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to “very tough battles” in the eastern Donetsk region.
All of which are signs that, yes, the counteroffensive is finally here. But the is-it-or-is-it-not-officially-happening question about the counteroffensive has, in lots of ways, always been besides the point. Ukraine has closely guarded its operational security (even from its Western partners to a degree), and Kyiv is not going to make any public announcements that could jeopardize its strategy or give away its plans. Or as Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense tweeted Monday: “Shhhhhh.”
And the counteroffensive exists on a sort of continuum. All the ingredients of a successful counteroffensive have been unfolding over the past weeks. Ukraine has targeted Russian frontlines with long-range attacks and carried out localized attacks in places like Bakhmut. Ukraine has its fingerprints on diversionary tactics, like the cross-border attacks into Belgorod led by pro-Ukrainian militias. “Ukrainian forces are already shaping the battlefield,” said Robert Murrett, a former naval intelligence officer and professor of practice at Syracuse University.
As those tactical operations continue, as more Western…
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