The October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza have upended Middle Eastern politics and created an escalating and increasingly complex security crisis that threatens to engulf the entire region.
But these events did not occur in a vacuum. In the past week, Hamas and Israel appeared to edge closer to a ceasefire, even as the US on February 3 launched attacks on Iranian-backed militias in retaliation for a drone strike that killed three American troops at the end of January.
Even prior to Hamas’s attack and Israel’s response, longstanding alliances and regional political dynamics in the broader Middle East were in a state of unusual flux. Major players including Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are all reconsidering their interests in the region.
What follows is a look at where the region’s various power players — the combatants, those watching from the sidelines, and the groups and countries that fall in between — stand at the moment.
Tier 1: Active combatants
Israel
Goals: Israel’s two primary goals in the war in Gaza are the destruction of Hamas and the release of the over 240 hostages taken on October 7. But there are increasing doubts both from its allies and figures within the Israeli establishment about whether these two goals are compatible — and whether the first one is even feasible.
Prior to October 7, Israel’s main foreign policy priority had been normalizing relations with Arab governments, particularly Saudi Arabia, with whom it shared economic interests and a common enemy in Iran. This process had been supported by both the Trump and Biden administrations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government includes a number of far-right pro-settlement parties, had hoped to do this without making major concessions on Palestinian statehood — a strategy that appeared possible in part because the Palestinian issue had seemingly begun to lose salience for many Arab governments. While…
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