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The biggest race of 2023 is in Kentucky, and it’s not the Derby. Instead, the reelection bid by the state’s Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear will be the focus of national attention in November. It’s not just about the high stakes for the Bluegrass State, where Republicans have supermajorities in the state legislature and Beshear is the lone remaining Democrat in a statewide office. The race also serves as a bellwether for 2024, when control of the Senate will hinge on popular Democratic incumbents facing tough reelection battles in states like Ohio and Montana, which are less red than Kentucky.

But, before Republicans can try to defeat Beshear, they first have to pick a nominee in what has become a bruising and expensive primary. The May 16 election has not been an ideological battle between different wings of the GOP nor has there been any sort of reckoning or debate over former President Donald Trump’s influence in the party. Instead, it has been a battle over which candidate can more convincingly claim to be a conservative fighter against Joe Biden and “the radical left.”

The race has boiled down to a fiercely contested battle between Daniel Cameron, the state attorney general, and Kelly Craft, a Republican megadonor who served in the Trump administration, first as ambassador to Canada and then to the United Nations. The state’s agricultural commissioner, Ryan Quarles, is also in the mix as well but running a consistent third in public polls behind Cameron and Craft.

Both Cameron and Craft would represent historical milestones in the state. Craft would be the second female governor in Kentucky history and the first Republican woman elected to the office. Cameron represents an even bigger milestone. He not only would be the first African American governor in the history of Kentucky, he would be the first African American elected as a Republican governor of any state.

Politically, they have run similar campaigns on the issues. Scott Jennings, a…

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Vox is an American news and opinion website owned by Vox Media. The website was founded in April 2014 by Ezra Klein, Matt Yglesias, and Melissa Bell, and is noted for its concept of explanatory journalism. Vox's media presence also includes a YouTube channel, several podcasts, and a show presented on Netflix.

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