Even amid a historically packed global election calendar in 2024, next week’s presidential contest in Taiwan will be one of the most closely watched and significant. The political future of the island and its historically fraught relationship with China — by far the main issue for voters this year — will have consequences not just for Taiwan’s nearly 24 million people, but for global security and prosperity.
China views Taiwan as a rebellious province, rather than an independent country, and Beijing’s longstanding position is that the two should be reunified. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently described this reunification as a “historical inevitability” in his New Year’s address.
While China’s official position has been that this reunification — something Taiwanese voters overwhelmingly oppose — should be accomplished by peaceful means, it has not ruled out using force and has stepped up military and economic pressure on the island. This has alarmed governments and military leaders around the world, given the real possibility that a war over Taiwan could draw in other countries including the United States and devastate the global economy.
Underlining the stakes, a senior Chinese official warned Taiwanese voters this week to make the “correct” choice, describing the election as a decision between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”
China on the ballot
The January 13 election pits current Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) against Taipei Mayor Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT), as well as third-party candidate Ko Wen-je, of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Lai has been leading in the polls throughout the election, and benefited when an attempt by the two opposition parties to form a unity ticket collapsed in a messy public spat in November. But the race has been tightening in recent weeks — Lai led by 5 points at the end of December. “Most people…
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