Donald Trump and Joe Biden are among the most unpopular politicians in their respective parties. And yet, both routed their competition in Super Tuesday’s primary elections. Unless either man dies or abruptly retires, they will both be on the presidential ballot this November.
Although both parties are uniting behind weak standard-bearers, the Democrats’ apparent strategic failure has attracted greater scrutiny. Which is understandable. After all, it is Biden — not Trump — who is on pace to lose, if current polls are any guide. Given the president’s advanced age and extraordinarily low approval rating, it’s hard to believe that he is Blue America’s best hope.
And yet, when pollsters ask voters for their preference in a hypothetical race between Trump and various other prominent Democrats, no Biden alternative consistently outperforms the president. An Emerson College poll released last month showed Trump leading Biden by 1 point, besting Kamala Harris by 3 points, and routing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by 10 and 12 points respectively.
These results likely reflect Whitmer’s and Newsom’s low national name recognition more than anything else (in Michigan, where Whitmer is widely known, she does much better than Biden against Trump). Nevertheless, it remains the case that there is no stack of polling data showing any given Democrat trouncing Trump. And there has also been no challenger in the Democratic primary field capable of winning a non-negligible share of the vote.
Things are different in Red America. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley never posed a serious threat to Trump’s renomination.
If she had beaten him, however, polls suggest that Republicans could all but guarantee their coalition’s triumph in November. Instead, they’ve settled on a candidate that a majority of voters disdain.
In national polls of a hypothetical 2024 race, Haley leads Biden by an average of 5 points, while Trump…
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