The dramatic weekend of violence Russia — a mutiny that left warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin exiled in Belarus — captured the American media’s attention.
What about those watching the events in Russia?
Almost a year and a half into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, there are many lingering questions about how Russians see the country, the invasion, and the future of both. It’s similarly difficult to get the complete picture of how Russians grasp the moves of Prigozhin’s Wagner Group. The country’s press is closed, though VPNs are not uncommon as a way to access independent media. Putin’s security forces have hampered political expression, especially in the past year. Yet there are many indicators of where Russian public attitudes stand and how they are shifting, including public polling in Russia and an active ecosystem of bloggers and social media posters.
To get a better sense of how Russians are interpreting the recent events, I called Maria Lipman, a longtime journalist focused on the country and regular contributor to Foreign Affairs. She’s also a researcher at the Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies of the George Washington University.
“One thing is already clear now: [There] are desperate attempts by the government, by the loyalists, by state media, national television, to portray the events of 23rd and 24th as victorious for the Kremlin,” she told me.
Lipman and I also discussed why some Russians have ignored the war and why others take risks to stay closely updated on it through independent media. She explained the role of Russian bloggers in supporting the war, how conspiracy theories spread in Russia, and what to watch for between the lines of Russian state media.
In the coming days, Lipman will be watching whether Prigozhin’s rebellion will change the behavior of elites in Russia and those among Putin’s inner circle who can now see more clearly the weakness of the strongman.
Of course,…
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