Amid a rapidly approaching debt ceiling deadline and a continued standoff between Democrats and Republicans, it may be hard to see how this crisis ends.
Republicans believe (correctly) that holding the debt ceiling hostage gives them more leverage to win spending cuts from Biden. Democrats believe (correctly) that this is dangerous and irresponsible behavior that risks economic devastation, and that rewarding it with policy concessions would lead to more such behavior.
Just how much trouble you think we’re in depends on just how pragmatic — and tethered to reality — you think each side is.
The question about Republicans is pretty simple: Are the adults in charge?
Put it another way: Is the party controlled by extremists willing to burn down the country’s credit rating if they can’t force Democrats into unthinkable concessions? Or are they taking a tough negotiating position but likely to agree to some reasonable compromise with Democrats in the end?
There’s a question about Democrats too: Will they conclude that they probably do have to give up something to free the hostage?
That is: Will Biden climb down from his “no negotiations” position soon? Or are too many in the party truly dug into the position that any debt ceiling negotiations are immoral and dangerous, clinging to the hope that Republicans will cave with no concessions? (Many liberal commentators hope Biden will take the debt limit off the table entirely by using his executive power in some way, but administration officials have publicly dismissed such ideas.)
The debt ceiling discourse is a bit confusing because it isn’t just about the debt ceiling. As my colleague Dylan Matthews recently explained, what Republicans actually want to negotiate over is government spending levels. And Democrats will definitely have to deal with the GOP-controlled House to get government funding bills passed through Congress — if they don’t, the government shuts down after September 30. That…
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