In Tuesday’s off-cycle elections, Democrats are looking competitive in two somewhat unexpected places: the red states of Kentucky and Mississippi. In both, the Democratic candidate has managed to leverage personality, policy messaging, and fundraising skill to deepen their chances in a challenging and close gubernatorial race.
In Kentucky, popular Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear is battling for reelection against state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a Republican backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and former President Donald Trump. Of the two races, Kentucky is seen as more favorable to Democrats given Beshear’s incumbency and high approval rating, with Cook Political Report rating it as “Lean Democratic.”
In Mississippi, the Democratic candidate, Brandon Presley, a member of the state’s public service commission and Elvis’s second cousin, is attempting to unseat unpopular incumbent Republican Tate Reeves. Presley’s race is viewed as more of a longshot, with Cook Political Report rating the race “Lean Republican.” Presley’s compelling personal story of overcoming poverty and succeeding after the murder of his father, as well as his populist policy platform, have put him more in contention this cycle than Democrats have been in the past.
Democrats still face significant obstacles in both states, however, due to the region’s Republican leanings. Kentucky’s legislature has a Republican supermajority, many of its top statewide officials are Republican, and its voters backed Trump by 26 percentage points in 2020. Similarly, Mississippi’s legislature also has a Republican supermajority, all of its top statewide officials are Republican, and its voters backed Trump by 16 percentage points in 2020. Additionally, Mississippi hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in 24 years.
Since both places are red states, and gubernatorial elections are often substantially different from federal ones, neither is a perfect blueprint…
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