In early February 2022, three weeks before launching his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood side by side with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two autocrats had come together in Beijing ahead of the Winter Olympics to declare in a joint statement that the friendship between their states had “no limits” and “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”
Since then, what Putin clearly foresaw as a blitzkrieg has become a drawn-out slog. Likewise, over the course of the war, which kicked off a year ago Friday, any hopes the Kremlin may have had of an equal partnership between Moscow and Beijing have slipped away. And the seemingly strengthened relationship that some analysts feared would amount to an “inflection point” in world history has proved to be more of an informal “situationship” at best, with neither side willing to fully commit.
The imbalance between the two was apparent in recent weeks, as NBC News reported that American officials believe China is supplying nonlethal military assistance to Russia for the next phase of its campaign this spring. Secretary of State Antony Blinken went further in an interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday, saying “there are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons.”
Chinese officials have denied this, insisting that Beijing remains neutral in the conflict. Meanwhile, Wang Yi, China’s top-ranked foreign policy official, met with Putin on Wednesday, promoting a peace proposal that he has floated in recent days. Xi is also preparing to give a “peace speech” on Friday, continuing to position China as not taking sides against either party. But the idea that Beijing could act as a neutral interlocutor is worthy of skepticism, given how it has avoided any condemnation of Russia’s invasion and so far benefited from the war.
Before delving deeper, though, let’s pause and appreciate that Russia is a former…
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