Presidential primaries are not usually this predictable. But there have been few surprises on either the Democratic or Republican sides heading into Super Tuesday, which will likely end with Donald Trump and Joe Biden moving closer to their parties’ nominations.
But that doesn’t mean that the primaries didn’t matter.
In fact, there have been five moments over the last two months that may prove to be decisive in terms of how the November election turns out.
Here’s a closer look at those revealing days.
Jan. 23: Trump shows weakness
The New Hampshire Republican primary revealed Trump’s biggest vulnerability coming out of primary season — his inability to garner a commanding majority of Republican votes in key contests. As a former president, Trump is the de facto Republican incumbent. To lose more than 40% of the vote, as he did to Haley in both New Hampshire and South Carolina — or even 27% in Michigan — shows real weakness. To be fair, some number of those Haley voters are independents or possibly even Democrats crossing over to weaken Trump. Still, a vote against Trump is a vote against Trump, no matter the voter’s party affiliation, and that spells trouble for the former president in the fall.
Jan. 23: Anti-Biden efforts falter
If there was any energy in the party to try and replace Biden as the nominee, it should have shown itself in New Hampshire.
For Biden, the New Hampshire Democratic primary showed that — despite lots of polling showing that Democrats are unhappy with Biden as the nominee — there is no meaningful anti-Biden movement in the party. Biden’s name was not on the New Hampshire ballot and his main Democratic opponent, Dean Phillips, spent close to $3 million trying to rally New Hampshire voters who were mortally offended that the president killed the state’s “first in the nation” primary status. If there was any energy in the party to try and replace Biden as the nominee, it should have shown itself in New Hampshire with…
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