Though she hasn’t formally announced a decision, all signs continue to suggest that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party and became an independent in December, will run for reelection in 2024. She is fundraising on Facebook, talking up her accomplishments, and has already taken the procedural step of notifying the Federal Election Commission that she intends to run for office. In-state politicos expect her to run, even though she’s still maintaining a low national profile.
Avoiding the spotlight has been a difficult task: Sinema has become the subject of liberal derision for much of her tenure for blocking progressive priorities, defending the Senate filibuster, and inspiring many memeable moments. She’s polled terribly with Democratic voters in the state, especially after foiling the most ambitious version of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, and the pressure from progressives culminated in her party-switch announcement.
Whether an independent candidate can win a major statewide race in Arizona is an open question, and for good reason: Third-party candidates have rarely done well in national races around the country, and Sinema would be the state’s first independent elected senator.
But based on early polling, Arizona’s political landscape, and her 2018 campaign experience, you can see the rough outlines of what a general election might look like. And in my conversations with campaign strategists and Arizona political operatives, it seems clear: Sinema can win the Arizona Senate race as an independent, especially if Republicans nominate a far-right candidate.
Exactly what a third-party Sinema for Senate campaign looks like is still unknown. As an independent, she won’t have to run in the 2024 primary election, and she has plenty of time (until April 2024) to gather the necessary signatures to qualify to appear on the state’s ballot for the November general election. She could also always join the newly recognized No Labels…
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