Just how dire are President Joe Biden’s poll numbers looking for Democrats?
The president is currently registering a 38.9 percent approval rating on average. He’s trailing Donald Trump in national polls by 2.3 percentage points. And he’s also trailing Trump in five of the six key Electoral College swing states.
If we take all this at face value, the natural conclusion is that Biden’s reelection bid is in deep trouble — indeed, that he is currently on track to lose to likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.
So now, Democrats and political commentators are embroiled in a fierce debate about whether to take them at face value — and about just how much panic about Biden is currently called for.
Like nearly every new president, Biden started out with far more Americans approving than disapproving of his job performance, due to what’s known as the “honeymoon” period. But in the latter half of his first year in office, amid the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, and a resurgent Covid pandemic, his approval plunged. In the two years since, it hasn’t recovered.
Indeed, Biden’s numbers have been remarkably stable — since the end of 2021, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has shown between 38 percent and 43 percent of poll respondents approving. But by the same metric, the recent presidents who won reelection all had approval in the high 40s or above in their election years.
Polls pitting Biden against Trump also look grim for the president right now. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages currently show Biden trailing Trump by 2 points nationally, by about 2 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and by 4 to 5 points in Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. (Biden is only leading one swing state, Wisconsin, by about 1 point.)
In conversations with pollsters and political scientists, I’ve heard three separate theories of how to interpret these numbers.
One theory: Biden is blowing it — the polls are a clear warning sign that the…
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