For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season.
Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000).
A look at the current dynamics in both parties suggests 2024 could be one of the most, if not the most, boring primary cycles in the last 50 years.
Nothing is set in stone. Things can change when you least expect it, but it’s tough not to acknowledge the current facts.
Let’s start on the Democratic side, where President Joe Biden is expected to announce as early as Tuesday that he is running for reelection. No incumbent president has lost a state primary (where he was on the ballot) since 1980.
At this point, Biden doesn’t look likely to break that streak. He hasn’t attracted a challenger who would be considered serious under most metrics. Neither Marianne Williamson nor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has ever held elected office. Williamson gained no traction during her 2020 presidential bid. Kennedy pushes debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety and is seeking votes from an electorate that is overwhelmingly vaccinated against Covid-19.
The very limited polling so far shows Biden with a large advantage over Williamson and Kennedy.
Perhaps more importantly, few Democratic elected officials have indicated anything other than loyalty to a 2024 Biden bid. That’s key for a few reasons.
First, primary endorsements are as good a predictor at this point of primary success as polling is.
Second, it’s true that Democratic primary voters tell pollsters they are open to listening to a credible challenger to Biden. The president, after all, would be 82…
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