As many as 21 million Americans could be at risk of losing their Medicaid coverage under the House GOP’s work requirement proposal, according to a new Biden administration analysis shared exclusively with Vox.
The projections are both a warning about the potential consequences of the strict reporting requirements Republicans are contemplating and ammunition for Democrats in the upcoming negotiations over raising the federal debt limit.
The House’s work requirement proposal — dubbed a “community engagement” requirement in the bill’s text — would mandate that many Medicaid recipients work, look for work, or participate in another kind of community service for at least 20 hours per week (though some conservatives want that number to be even higher).
According to Punchbowl News, these work requirements for social programs are, along with spending cuts and permitting reform, a top priority for the House GOP in talks over raising the federal debt ceiling.
Children under the age of 18, adults over 56, people on Medicaid with mental or physical disabilities, and parents of dependent children would largely be exempted. However, that exemption is not ironclad.
For one, states would have the ability to subject more people, such as parents, to the requirement, based on the Georgetown Center for Children and Families’s read of the bill’s text. Second, people with disabilities could still be required to submit information to receive an exemption — which raises the possibility that a snag in their paperwork could lead to them losing benefits.
In their new projections, the Biden administration estimated the number of Medicaid recipients who would be required to meet the work requirement or submit information to prove they should be exempted. Those are primarily people living in 40 states that have expanded Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act. Most of the expansion population is childless non-disabled adults, but some parents and some people with…
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