Even the race to replace George Santos in Congress is packed with drama.
The historic expulsion of Santos in December has prompted a rare special election in a swing congressional district that could prove a bellwether for November. A Democratic win in New York’s Third Congressional District, which Joe Biden won by 8 in 2020, would further shrink the already tenuous Republican majority and make it that much easier for Democrats to win back the House. A Republican hold, though, would be a huge boost for the GOP in the Long Island district located on the edge of New York City. After all, if they can survive George Santos’s scandals in the suburbs, perhaps they can survive Donald Trump’s too.
Who are the candidates?
Democrats are running perhaps their strongest possible candidate in the district: former Rep. Tom Suozzi. Suozzi represented the seat for three terms before giving it up in 2022 for a long-shot primary challenge to incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul. Suozzi is a longtime local politician who is well-liked and has cultivated a moderate image. In contrast, the Republican candidate, Mazi Pilip, is a relative newcomer to politics, albeit one with a sterling biography. A first-term member of the county legislature and a mother of seven, Pilip is an Ethiopian Jew who served in the Israel Defense Forces before immigrating to the United States with her husband. She has run a cautious, sheltered campaign, dodging reporters and holding relatively few public events.
What are the polls saying?
The limited public polling available shows that the race will be very close. A recent Newsday/Siena College poll shows Suozzi with a narrow 48 percent to 44 percent lead, and one from Emerson College gives the Democrat an almost identical 50 percent to 47 percent margin. Both polls show Biden being deeply unpopular in the district with an approval rating under 40 percent, and the Siena poll shows Donald Trump winning a head-to-head matchup against Biden by a 47 percent…
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