They constitute one of the most valuable, overlooked, and misunderstood chunks of the American electorate: the nation’s mythical moderates.
They’re a complicated bunch. They’re often described as swing voters, fickle ideological creatures who exist around the center of the political spectrum. They get conflated with “independent” and “undecided” voters but aren’t exactly the same. They tend to be less politically engaged than their fierce partisan compatriots to their left and right. They’re both accused of not really existing and credited with winning elections for the major parties. And recently, they’re both the reason the Republican Party has been doing so poorly in the Donald Trump era and the reason Democrats should be careful that their winning coalition doesn’t collapse.
But how can “moderates” be behind all of these confusing and seemingly contradictory phenomena? It turns out they are not a monolith. Instead of thinking about them as a single group of voters who have political opinions that average out to the center of the ideological spectrum, I think it’s helpful to look at what academic experts and researchers have found when studying them. And that is, basically, that you should break down moderate Americans into three discrete blocs.
You have true moderates, whose opinions consistently fall around the center of the ideological spectrum. Then there are the moderates who are largely disengaged from politics and hold inconsistent opinions — sometimes, a mix of extreme views from both sides that, when averaged, often give them the false appearance of centrism. And then you have a kind of unicorn, the person who is engaged in politics but similarly has a mix of policy opinions that don’t place them cleanly on the ideological spectrum or in either major US political party.
Understanding these categories is important for anyone who hopes to understand what moderate voters are — and crucial for anyone who hopes to win…
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