President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has led Turkey for 20 years, consolidating power and reorienting the state around him. But this Sunday’s elections represent a very real challenge to his authority — and Turkey’s voters could finally end his rule.
Erdoğan has survived political challenges before — and he definitely could again — but an imploding economy, potential fallout from the government’s earthquake response, baggage of his decades-long tenure, and a fairly united opposition have turned this into a competitive election. Heading into Sunday’s first round of voting, polls show a tight race between Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition candidate who leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP), one of six parties joined together in an opposition coalition. In some polls, Kılıçdaroğlu has the edge.
“These elections seem to be a life-or-death situation, in a way — meaning that a lot of people see this as the last chance to actually change the Erdoğan government,” said Ateş Altınordu, assistant professor of sociology at Sabancı University in Turkey.
Kılıçdaroğlu is something of an unlikely success story. He wasn’t the obvious favorite to lead the opposition: He’s a 74-year-old longtime politician who wasn’t seen as particularly inspiring or dynamic, especially to take on a political survivor like Erdoğan. But he has appealed directly to voters with his plainspoken videos and has tried to frame his candidacy as inclusive and welcoming — a kind of calm, predictable figure who could serve as Turkey’s transition from the era of Erdoğan to the next.
That outcome is far from guaranteed. Erdoğan has built-in advantages, including control of the media and state resources. He retains a staunch base of supporters loyal to him and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). And this is a leader who’s spent the past 20 years in power, and purged his perceived political opponents from government and judicial…
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