Given former President Donald Trump’s dominance in the GOP primaries, attention is now turning to a new topic: who he’ll pick as his potential vice president.
In past elections, a nominee’s choice of running mate has been closely watched for a variety of reasons. They may bring experience to balance a nominee’s lack of it (think Barack Obama’s choice of Joe Biden), or they may appeal to a region or demographic that the nominee would like to reach (think Donald Trump’s pick of Mike Pence), or they may amplify a presidential campaign’s message (think Bill Clinton with Al Gore).
But the veepstakes — and the attention lavished on it — can also overstate the importance of the pick. Research has found that vice presidential picks matter much less to the outcome than is often assumed. The work of vice presidential scholars Chris Devine and Kyle Kopko, for instance, found that VP picks typically affect general election outcomes only if they’re extremely popular or polarizing. Those results have been echoed in other analyses, like a 2016 study by the Wall Street Journal that found most voters don’t take a candidate’s VP into account when choosing a president.
Who Trump picks might also mean even less in an election like 2024, given that the public’s views about the former president are already fairly set. Which isn’t to say the identity of Trump’s number two is unimportant. Trump’s age means his vice president may well have to step in for him, so who he chooses may prove to be consequential. His pick will also signal if he’s looking for a governing partner with more experience, and what, if any, other ideological viewpoints he might be willing to consider.
Thus far, sources told Fox Business a shortlist includes everyone from Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance to House Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). As part of this decision, Trump is reportedly prioritizing both loyalty and selecting someone who won’t overshadow him. He has also said he would be…
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