On Thursday, the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, the case asking whether former President Donald Trump’s role in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol disqualifies him from seeking the presidency.
The Colorado Supreme Court previously ruled that Trump must be removed from the ballot in that state, under a provision of the Constitution that prohibits former high-ranking officials who engage in “insurrection” from serving again. That decision is now on appeal to the justices.
This is just one of four criminal prosecutions of Trump, and Trump is also a defendant in several high-dollar civil suits. But for today, let’s zoom in on this one.
Broadly speaking, there are several different ways Anderson could come down. The most likely scenario is that he is definitively allowed to run for president again.
Alternatively, there are several ways the Court could punt this case — effectively ruling that Colorado’s courts were wrong for some reason specific to Colorado. They could do this in a way that has broader implications for US election law. Or they could do it in a way that doesn’t, potentially allowing some other state to declare Trump disqualified from the ballot.
Finally, there is at least some chance that the Court could rule against Trump and order him disqualified. This outcome would require at least two of the Court’s Republican appointees to vote to remove the leader of the Republican Party from the 2024 ballot, so it is not especially likely. But it could theoretically happen.
Let’s dig in.
Outcome 1: Total Trump victory
Let’s start with the most likely outcome first. This Court is highly partisan, and Republican appointees control a supermajority of its seats. So most of the justices are likely to be sympathetic to Trump.
Also, the justices probably won’t want to leave the question of whether Trump is disqualified unresolved, lest they have to hear a very similar case again in just a few weeks.
There are…
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