Donald Trump may be facing 91 criminal counts across four separate indictments, but polls continue to show an extremely close 2024 contest between him and President Joe Biden.
A CNN poll released Thursday showed Trump ahead by one point. Other recent polls have shown a tied race or a narrow lead for either candidate. The RealClearPolitics polling average now shows Biden leading by a mere 0.4 percentage point margin — basically a pure toss-up. Polling in swing states has been more sparse this year, but most of the few that have been released have shown close contests too.
Some Democrats have responded with anxiety about what the polls show or cautious hope that there’s still enough time for things to change. Others question whether particular polls are on the level or simply argue it’s too early to read much into them.
It is early, and the polls will likely move around more in the next 14 months before the general election. Many things could happen: Trump could face criminal convictions, Biden’s age (or Trump’s age) could show more, the economy could take a turn for the better or worse. But if we ignore small short-term fluctuations, over the past year, polls have been telling a broadly consistent story of a very close race that Trump has a real shot of winning if, as expected, he wins the GOP nomination.
That meshes with some other things we know about the 2024 race. The same candidates ran in 2020 and it was very close then. And Biden has low approval ratings — suggesting a significant number of people who voted for him aren’t thrilled with his presidency, and that his campaign has a good deal of work to do.
It is early, but polls right now aren’t totally worthless
The conventional wisdom is that polls this far ahead of the election aren’t worth very much, because much will change before Election Day. There’s truth to that — the campaigns will help better frame the choice for voters, less well-known candidates can become better known…
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