The ruling junta in Mali is holding a constitutional referendum as part of a transition back toward civilian rule, but experts and political opponents say the true aim is consolidating its power in the increasingly violent and unstable Sahel region, which runs through Mali and several other countries.
The junta, which came to power in an August 2020 coup, has promised to stabilize the country where violent insurgent Islamist groups compete with it and each other for control. Instead, violence on the part of the Islamists and the junta — backed by the Russian mercenary Wagner group — has increased exponentially, with civilians bearing the brunt of the horror.
The vote has been delayed several times, most recently in February of this year, citing logistical reasons. Presidential elections are to be held in February 2024, though it’s unclear whether the junta will adhere to that timeframe.
Some of the proposed constitutional amendments give more power to the president, rather than than the parliament — hence the political opposition. Though it’s unclear whether the current leader, Col. Assimi Goïta, will stand in any future election, certainly an ally or proxy for the junta will. That could effectively legitimize the junta’s control and perpetuate the current violence and instability.
“The fear I have for Mali is that we might see, effectively, the restoration of military power which is kind of like going back to the ‘70s and ‘80s, which are commonly referred to in the African politics literature as the ‘Dark Decades,’” according to Daniel Eizenga of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. “That was a really terrible time, but [the current situation] looks kind of like a prelude to re-experiencing that,” he told Vox in an interview.
Security forces have already voted, and civilians are set to vote Sunday, June 18 — a simple “yes” or “no” in response to whether they approve of the changes the junta has proposed to the…
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