Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will not run for reelection — a decision that likely means Democrats will lose a Senate seat in the narrowly divided chamber in 2024.
The stubborn centrist represented one of the most Republican states in the country — one that Trump won by nearly a 39 percentage point margin in 2020. Yet Manchin was able to defy West Virginia’s partisan leanings via his long history in state politics, including as a former governor, dating back to the years when Democrats won the state regularly.
Since then, the West Virginia Democratic Party has been decimated, as the state’s voters have increasingly voted with their national partisan loyalties. It is hard to believe any other potential Democratic nominee would be able to match Manchin’s political strength there.
Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, so losing Manchin’s seat would put them back to 50-50 — still enough for control if President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris win reelection.
The problem is that Democrats’ 2024 Senate challenges go far beyond West Virginia. They face such a starkly unfavorable map that, if things even go somewhat poorly for the party, they could fall into a deep Senate hole for years to come.
Besides Manchin, two other Democratic senators represent states Donald Trump won in 2020, and they’re also up for reelection in 2024. Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) are both running again, but these are all very red states, and winning them in a presidential year will be quite difficult for Democrats.
But the vulnerabilities go deeper. The only remotely close states (per presidential results) where Republicans are defending seats are Florida and Texas — two states where Democrats have had few victories in recent years. Meanwhile, Democrats are also defending seats in five states Joe Biden very narrowly won in 2020. These seats are currently held by Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA),…
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