Few states have major elections coming up in November. But in those that do, abortion rights are playing a pivotal role.
The outcome of those contests — an abortion rights ballot measure in Ohio, a competitive gubernatorial election in Kentucky, and a fight over whether Republicans in Virginia will gain full control of state government — will shape reproductive health care in those states. The results also have big ramifications for political strategy and investments into 2024, as leaders wait to see if abortion rights yield the same kinds of electoral wins for Democrats as they did in 2022.
For many on the left, the question of whether abortion rights serve as a winning issue has already been decisively answered. Activists and progressive leaders point to the fact that abortion rights ballot measures won in all six states where they appeared in 2022, including red and purple states that otherwise elected Republican candidates. They point to a slew of special elections in battleground states that Democrats have won over the past 18 months, a closely watched Wisconsin state supreme court election where the pro-choice candidate won, and polls showing voters appear to have grown even more supportive of abortion rights than they were before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.
Still, anti-abortion groups and some Republican officials continue to argue this electoral confidence in messaging that supports abortion rights is misplaced. After the midterms last year, anti-abortion leaders were quick to point out that Democrats failed to unseat incumbent anti-abortion governors, and that candidates who promised to aggressively restrict abortion access, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, prevailed in their contests, compared to Republican candidates such as Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Adam Laxalt in Nevada who shied more from the topic. More recently, activist groups have argued that Republican presidential candidates
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