As president, Trump delivered for anti-abortion voters in the biggest way possible by appointing the three Supreme Court justices who cast the deciding votes to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Rather than campaigning on that gift to the anti-abortion movement this year, however, he’s largely running away from it — no doubt because pro-abortion-rights candidates and measures have been consistently winning since Roe fell.
In voicing his (potential) support for a 15-week federal ban on the procedure, Trump also said the issue should be left to the states, and that activists pushing for stiffer federal bans should understand that “you have to win elections.”
Endorsing a 15-week ban (which would be very unlikely to pass Congress) is Trump’s way of telling moderate and independent voters that “he’s not going to make abortion an issue,” said Mary Ziegler, a law professor at UC Davis and author of the book Abortion and the Law in America: Roe v. Wade to the Present.
Indeed, part of Trump’s success in the polls thus far appears to stem from his ability to capture independent voters who are dissatisfied with the economy and angry about immigration, but who may not identify as religious or even as conservative. It’s plausible that Trump might let abortion politics — and issues of reproductive and family policy more generally — fade into the background in a second term. After all, it’s “not something he instinctively cares a lot about,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.
However, there are powerful groups within Trump’s coalition — both his base of supporters and his stable of former and current advisers — who do care a lot about abortion. And contraception. And gender identity. And marriage.
Trump’s message to these groups, cloaked in religious language, is much different from the one he’s delivering to moderates. And they’re likely to have an outsize influence on policy in a second…
Read the full article here
