A Washington jury put down a marker that could protect generations of future elections by finding four Proud Boys extremists guilty of the seditious conspiracy of trying to violently thwart the transfer of presidential power.
But what about the next election?
Thursday’s verdict only added to the intrigue surrounding the gravest legal and political unknown from the 2021 Capitol insurrection that hangs over the 2024 campaign: will Donald Trump, the president who inspired the uprising, face his own legal and political price?
This is not simply vital to the question of whether justice applies equally to everyone in society, no matter how powerful they might be. It’s also fundamental to the historical accounting still unfolding over one of the most flagrant attacks on American democracy and may go some way to undermining Republican efforts to blur the truth of what happened on that terrible day.
But the legal uncertainty facing Trump – who appears in jeopardy in multiple investigations springing from his election denialism and other alleged transgressions – comes with a related political question. Even if the ex-president is charged with trying to overthrow the core principle of democracy – the peaceful transfer of power – will it ultimately hurt his 2024 campaign?
The former president is betting that it won’t. He’s spent two years denying the truth of January 6 and has anchored his 2024 campaign for a non-consecutive second term to the premise that he was illegally ousted from power in 2020. If the nascent Republican nominating contest is any guide, Trump’s legacy of disgrace is unlikely to scare off Republican primary voters, many of whom seem to be warming to him after his slow start. And that’s despite his indictment in a hush money case in New York. (He’s pleaded not guilty to charges of falsifying business records.)
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