Nikki Haley congratulated Trump on his New Hampshire primary victory Tuesday — but she also said she wasn’t giving up on her campaign just yet, declaring, “This race is far from over.”
In the view of many pundits, it is essentially over.
But, technically, it isn’t. Just two small states — with a paltry share of the delegates that will determine the Republican nominee — have voted so far. Forty-eight states remain.
It is clear that Trump is a very strong favorite to win the nomination. It seems clear that, in losing New Hampshire, Haley missed what appeared to be her best shot to shake up the dynamics of the race. If polls of future states remain unchanged, Haley will get blown out in the next contests. It is hard to imagine how she turns things around.
If polls were enough, though, there would be no need to have elections at all. The media might think they know what’s going to happen. But it has not actually happened yet.
Haley can technically stay in as long as she wants; the question is whether she will. Candidates often claim they’re all in until the moment they’re not, and her road will grow even more difficult if the political world decides she has no shot. The risk is that donors cut off their money so that she can no longer pay staff, and outside groups no longer pay millions for ads on her behalf (as they did in New Hampshire).
If she stays in, it will likely be under the hope that, who knows, something totally crazy might happen to improve her chances between now and the February 24 South Carolina primary in her home state, where Haley trails recent polls by about 30 points.
Time will indisputably run out, though, on Super Tuesday. Once the March 5 contests are over, 47 percent of Republican delegates will be allocated. If Trump wins those contests by a wide margin, it will be functionally impossible to catch up to him. By then, enough of the voters will have spoken.
Two things are true: Haley’s chances are dwindling. And…
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