Here’s an old chestnut that’s been threatening to become conventional wisdom in recent weeks: Any indictment of former President Donald Trump helps his chances in a presidential election.
This view has been repeated in multiple rounds of analysis and reporting over the years, any time accountability for Trump becomes a topic of interest, from the Russia investigation to impeachment to the Jan. 6 committee. And it has risen once more as Trump faces possible charges in relation to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation of a 2016 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
But from where I’m sitting, there doesn’t seem to be much basis for the claim that trying to strike Trump down will only make him more powerful. Instead, it seems more like the result of a feedback loop between Trumpworld and MAGA voters that deserves much more skepticism than it has been getting.
MAGA supporters see and hear that message and are happy to repeat it back when asked.
While there’s some reasonable concern about the potential chilling effect of a failed indictment, that’s not what Trump supporters are saying when they make the case that an indictment would be a net positive for the former president. They point to the failed impeachments and numerous previous investigations. They point to Trump’s claim of political persecution as a mainstay of his image and say any indictment would similarly bolster that claim. They claim that actually Trump’s team is “pumped” about the possibility of an indictment and an arrest.
“Of course, no one wants to be indicted, but it is helpful politically and legally it’s not even that much of a threat because the case is so weak and looks nakedly political,” the Daily Mail quoted one “member of Trump’s inner circle” as saying. Trump lawyer Joe Tacopina argued in an interview with “Good Day New York” that an indictment would “embolden him and embolden his supporters.” Rep. Elise Stefanik,…
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