The International Criminal Court last week issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, alleging that he and one of his senior officials had committed a “war crime” via the alleged government policy of forcibly relocating Ukrainian children to Russia.
The case raises plenty of legal questions. To this point, international tribunals have focused on violent attacks against civilians and other alleged crimes committed on the battlefield. They have not adjudicated the sort of crime Putin is charged with, which is based on Russia’s legal obligations as an occupying power. Yet the impact of the ICC’s move will almost certainly be less in the courtroom than in the diplomatic realm. That’s because Vladimir Putin is exceedingly unlikely to end up in The Hague.
The impact of the ICC’s move will almost certainly be less in the courtroom than in the diplomatic realm.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov immediately declared that the charges were “null and void.” He has a point. As a non-ICC member, Russia has no legal obligation to respect the court’s processes. And the ICC itself has no means of making arrests; it relies entirely on member countries to enforce its warrants. Putin will be perfectly safe in Russia or on the territory of friendly countries like China. What’s more, the ICC’s rules mean that no trial can begin without Putin being present.
For the foreseeable future, the arrest warrant will be little more than a noteworthy piece of paper — unless it has an impact on Putin’s political position at home or abroad.
One question is whether the court’s move galvanizes opposition to Putin within Russia. Resistance to Putin’s government has flared periodically, and regime opponents celebrated the ICC charges. “Lock him up!” Vladimir Milov, an ally of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, reportedly responded. But there is little reason to expect that the court’s action will change the political dynamic inside…
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