In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, as Donald Trump scrambled to convince his followers that he had won the race he lost, there was plenty of polling data suggesting that his lies were having the intended effect: Most Republican voters actually believed the nonsense that would soon become known as the “big lie.”
As regular readers know, I initially hoped that reality would set in gradually over time. It seemed at least somewhat plausible to think that some of the early polling on this — during the presidential transition period, for example — was driven by more of an emotional reaction than a meaningful assessment of the facts. Many GOP voters were led to believe that Trump would win, so perhaps their initial rejection of President Joe Biden’s victory was a combination of reflexive surprise and anger.
What’s more, as the 2020 race faded from view, Republicans failed to produce any evidence to substantiate the lies, and policymakers’ attention shifted to governing, common sense suggested that even GOP die-hards would move on.
They have not. In fact, my naive hopes about a gradual acceptance of reality have been dashed in dramatic fashion. Election Day 2020 was more than 932 days ago, and a Washington Post analysis took note of the latest CNN poll to show just how little has changed on this front.
In CNN’s newest poll, released on Wednesday, the percentage of Republicans saying the election was illegitimate fell from 71 percent in January 2021 to … 63 percent.
A charitable observer might emphasize that this represents at least a little progress, but it’s awfully tough to find solace in such data. We’re still looking at a landscape in which nearly 2-in-3 GOP voters believe plainly absurd conspiracy theories about the most recent American presidential election.
Does this matter? Are there are any meaningful consequences to so many Republicans embracing such brazen lies? I think the answer to both questions is yes.
In fact, we’ve already…
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