About a year ago, before Donald Trump had been criminally charged anywhere, I made the modest prediction that that would change in 2023. It did. Now he’s fighting four criminal cases as he runs for president in 2024, in the hopes that an electoral victory will crush or at least delay all of them.
On the criminal front, then, the question for 2024 is no longer if Trump will be charged but when those charges will see trial. Just as there was no guarantee Trump would be charged anywhere heading into 2023, there’s no guarantee he’ll be tried anywhere in 2024. The former president may well face at least one criminal jury before November, but heading into the new year, it’s an open question of which case will be first.
To understand why, here’s a brief recap:
The D.C. case arguably poses the greatest risk to Trump, due to its combination of seriousness and the likelihood of going to trial with a judge inclined to move quickly. However, the schedule isn’t fully in the control of U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, who had to put the case on hold pending Trump’s immunity appeal. The Supreme Court rejected special counsel Jack Smith’s request to step in early and decide the issue, so it’s proceeding along the normal (albeit expedited) route through the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Oral argument is set for Jan. 9, so the next big thing to look out for there is how quickly the circuit decides the case after argument. Whoever loses (probably Trump) is likely to appeal that ruling, ultimately leaving the calendar up to the Supreme Court, which hasn’t been eager to jump into the dispute.
That could leave the Manhattan case as the first indictment to go to a jury. That one has gotten short shrift in the seriousness category, though it could also be viewed as an election interference case of sorts, because the alleged scheme to silence Stormy Daniels’ claimed affair with Trump and then cover it up took place against the backdrop of the 2016…
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