One thing we’ve learned from Donald Trump’s false assertion this month that he would be arrested last week is that he still has the ability, even as a former president, to hijack the news cycle and shape it around his chosen narrative. It’s a pattern we’ve seen play out several times before with Trump and one we should prepare for in the coming days as we wait to see whether Trump will be indicted by the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
When Trump knows there is an information vacuum, he gets his story out first, whether it is true or not.
As someone who studies and teaches about information warfare, I have analyzed the many ways Trump exploits journalistic and institutional norms to shape narratives in his favor. Trump is a master of exploiting what I refer to as information asymmetry — the space in which events are anticipated but can’t yet be officially confirmed, such as what we’re experiencing in the current moment.
And that’s when he strikes. When Trump knows there is an information vacuum, he gets his story out first, whether it’s true or not, giving him “first mover advantage.” In particular, we should keep in mind that the time between when the DA’s office negotiates a surrender with Trump’s lawyers and when charges are unsealed — which might take a couple of days — is when Trump would have the most latitude to shape the perceptions and reactions of his supporters.
Because once his version is out there, reining it in or correcting it becomes very difficult.
We saw how this can play out in Trump’s favor in the Russia investigation. At the conclusion of his investigation, special counsel Robert Mueller prepared a lengthy report, outlining both numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia and 10 potential counts of obstruction of justice. The report, however, was confidential and submitted to then-Attorney General William Barr, who had the power to release it; Mueller didn’t have the freedom to speak…
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