In the run-up to and aftermath of former President Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses, a number of political commentators have downplayed the results, in part by arguing that since Iowa is small and isn’t demographically representative of the U.S., a Trump win would be — and now is being — overhyped. A lot of this commentary misses the mark. Iowa needn’t look like America for Trump’s win to tell us about the state of the Republican Party and the worrisome direction of the country.
To begin with the obvious, a caucus is an intraparty contest, not a general election, which means Iowa’s demographics should be judged against the party’s demographics, not the country’s. Iowa is much whiter than the U.S., but it’s roughly as white as the GOP is nationally. Iowa is more rural than the average state, but a key part of the GOP’s national constituency is rural America. Iowa has a substantial and highly organized white evangelical population — as does the Republican Party. Trump’s success in the state is a fair preview of the standing he has with his party’s base, which is key to understanding his capacity to mobilize voters if he runs in the general election.
It’s not just Trump’s win that matters, but the way he won.
Secondly, it’s not just Trump’s win that matters, but the way he won: Trump didn’t just surpass his challengers; he absolutely dominated them. In a crowded field, he secured a full majority of the votes and won by the largest margin in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses’ 48-year history. Trump’s opponents had time to camp out in the state while he — as he juggled multiple criminal cases — only dipped in and out. Still, Trump triumphed in 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties.
Even though Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had won the endorsement of evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, Trump won in the northwestern regions of the state where white evangelicals are more concentrated. Even in the more moderate…
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