Reports of GOP unity turn out to be greatly exaggerated.
If you were to read only reports of Donald Trump’s growing control of the party, you might think otherwise. Trump’s hand-picked candidates are routing candidates backed by the old guard; his takeover of the Republican National Committee is complete; and he has already clinched the party’s nomination. Polls show that a clear majority of Republican voters have not only rallied to his support, but also say they would back him even if he is a convicted felon.
Almost 1 out of 5 Republican primary voters — including nearly half of Nikki Haley’s supporters — say they will not vote for Trump in November.
And yet, the cracks in this narrative are unmistakable. Trump’s outsize control in the party is formidable — but it’s far from complete. That means figures who could pry those fissures open — such as former congresswoman Liz Cheney and former Vice President Mike Pence — could have an outsize influence on the 2024 election.
An NBC exit poll in Ohio this week found that almost 1 out of 5 Republican primary voters — including nearly half of Nikki Haley’s supporters — say they will not vote for Trump in November.
While 18% is not a majority, it’s not chopped liver either. And it’s consistent with what happened at ballot boxes across the country.
Even though Trump is running unopposed, large numbers of Republicans continue to refuse to vote for the ex-president. In Kansas, nearly a quarter (24.5%) of Republican voters came out to cast ballots for somebody else. In Florida, opponents who had dropped out of the race received 18.8% of the vote; in Ohio, it was 20.8%; in Illinois, 19.2%. And, in the crucial swing state of Arizona, 22.1% of Republicans voted for a non-Trump alternative, a result that led Haley’s zombie campaign to put out a congratulatory tweet:
Caveats are, of course, in order. As The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake has noted, primary election turnouts do not reflect what will happen…
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