The special election for NY-3, aka George Santos’ old seat in the House, has been hyped as a predictor of what may happen in swing districts in November. Democrat Tom Suozzi ultimately pulled out the victory on Tuesday night, NBC News projects. But I’d argue it’s important to think of this election as a teachable moment for Democrats in swing districts, even as the GOP’s slim majority in the House grows even slimmer. The issue of immigration is coming to the suburbs, and Democrats desperately need to find a way to defuse it.
The issue of immigration is coming to the suburbs, and liberals desperately need to find a way to defuse it.
Special elections are special for a number of reasons — most notably, because they are often very low turnout races, which means candidates must target the district’s most ardent voters. The 2011 special election to fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Anthony Weiner’s resignation is a perfect example of how unpredictable these contests can be, especially when they become nationalized. Democrat David Weprin was expected to beat Republican Bob Turner and replace Weiner, but ended up losing in a close contest that arguably became a referendum on President Barack Obama and American support for Israel.
Tuesday’s election should also have been more of a lay-up for the hand-picked Democratic candidate, former congressman Suozzi. Suozzi served as Nassau County executive in a county that represents approximately 80% of NY-3, and he already represented NY-3 in Congress, for six years, before the district lines were redrawn. This is also a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans.
In comparison, Mazi Pilip, the Republican pick to succeed Santos, is a relatively unknown county legislator. She immigrated from Ethiopia to Israel in 1991, where she served in the Israel Defense Forces. Shortly after marrying in 2005, Pilip immigrated to the United States; she is a mother of seven and an Orthodox Jew.
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