Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is soaring in New Hampshire. A new Saint Anselm College survey shows Haley with 30% support among likely Republican primary voters in the state, trailing former President Donald Trump by 14 points. (The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.) That’s double the level of support Haley had in the same poll three months ago, and the closest any candidate has gotten to Trump in the state.
It’s the strongest sign yet of Haley’s momentum as she slowly climbs in national polls. And with New Hampshire being the site of the second nominating contest of the Republican presidential primary season, it’s a potentially high-stakes win if she can pull it off. Haley has relatively broad appeal across the GOP; there is a theoretical possibility that a Haley victory would alter the Republican electorate’s sense of her viability and change the contours of the race.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is partially a function of how odd its Republicans are.
But the odds are still heavily stacked against such a scenario. Haley needs other candidates to drop out of the race to have a meaningful chance against Trump. And as influential as New Hampshire is, it’s also enough of an outlier on the spectrum of Republican politics so as to create an illusion of viability rather than serve as the harbinger of it.
Haley’s rise in New Hampshire is partially a function of how odd its Republicans are. New Hampshire Republicans have an independent libertarian streak and skew exceptionally educated and secular. That’s an opening for Haley because Trump’s sweet spot is with non-college-educated voters, and because she isn’t being crowded out of substantial voting blocs, like Trump-aligned evangelicals in Iowa. Haley has been racking up political endorsements in the Granite State, most notably from popular four-term Republican Gov. Chris Sununu. Haley is also likely to benefit from the fact that independents can vote in the…
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