It’s been 12 months since former President Donald Trump announced that he would be running for re-election. Even after this excruciatingly long primary campaign, it still feels wild that we are somehow only a month away from the first votes finally being cast in Iowa. And according to the most recent polling, Trump is still the front-runner — by a lot.
The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll has 51% of likely Iowa caucusgoers ready to choose the former president as their top candidate next month. “Trump’s lead — the largest recorded so close to a competitive Republican caucus in this Iowa poll’s history — is fueled by majorities of evangelical and first-time likely caucusgoers, as well as by nearly three-quarters of Republicans who believe Trump can defeat President Joe Biden next year despite the legal challenges the former president faces,” NBC News reported Monday.
For comparison, Trump’s support is higher than the other five GOP candidates contesting Iowa combined.
For comparison, Trump’s support is higher than the other five GOP candidates contesting Iowa combined. There are a number of reasons why that statistic is so shocking, not least the fact that he has been entirely transparent about his autocratic plans for a second term. But for Trump to be so far ahead seems to be in defiance of what was at one point conventional wisdom about this race.
Back in June, I noted that the GOP field was beyond overcrowded, with 13 candidates throwing their hats into the ring to take on Biden next fall. The size of the field sparked flashbacks to Trump’s first run, when his eventual steamrolling of his opponents was aided by primary votes being diluted among too many opponents to prevent Trump from winning at least a plurality in most contests.
“I’m very concerned that we appear to be making the same mistakes that we made in 2016,” former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan told Reuters in the summer. Hogan said he’d considered vying for…
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