Expectations heading into this morning showed projections of around 238,000 new jobs having been added in the United States in March. As it turns out, according to the new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, those projections turned out to be pretty close to perfect. CNBC reported this morning:
Nonfarm payrolls rose about in line with expectations in March as the labor market showed increased signs of slowing. The Labor Department reported Friday that payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%.
If we looked only at the trend line, March’s totals might seem disappointing. After all, the domestic economy created 472,000 jobs in January and 326,000 jobs in February. With this in mind, 236,000 in March might seem like a move in a discouraging direction.
But that’s not quite right: With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to cool off the economy and curtail inflation, what everyone was hoping to see was evidence of steady and relatively strong job growth — good enough to show that more people are entering the workforce, but not so good that it reflected an overheating economy.
With this in mind, today’s report is generally encouraging.
What’s more, the data showed the unemployment rate inching lower, dropping to 3.5% from 3.6%, amidst a rising labor force participation rate. That’s also good news, and it’s the latest evidence of a jobless rate hovering around a 50-year low. In fact, the United States did not reach 3.5% unemployment at any point throughout the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s.
I’m mindful of the chatter about whether the economy is in a recession, but by any reasonable measure, these are not recession-like conditions.
As for the politics, let’s circle back to previous coverage to put the data in perspective. Over the course of the first three years of Donald Trump’s presidency — when the…
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