When it comes to the Republicans’ debt ceiling strategy, it can be difficult to gauge the appropriate level of concern. GOP officials are making an extraordinary threat — they’re prepared to impose a deliberate economic catastrophe unless their unstated demands are met — but even the most knowledgeable observers find it difficult to answer the underlying question: Would Republicans shoot their hostage?
For many, including much of Wall Street, the assumption is that there will be plenty of drama between now and early June, but the relevant players will avert a deliberate disaster. These beliefs aren’t just the result of pollyannish wishful thinking; they’re bolstered by comments from GOP leaders.
“At the risk of sounding patriotic here, you just can’t have the country default,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told NBC News in December. “It just can’t happen.” Two weeks ago, the Kentucky Republican went on to say that the United States “must never default on its debt,” adding: “It never has, it never will.”
It’s tempting to see quotes like these and breathe a sigh of relief. The next several months will be deeply unpleasant, but the more GOP leaders concede the country “just can’t” default, the easier it is to believe that when all is said and done, Republicans will not actually trash the full faith and credit of the United States.
There’s just one small word, however, that the party keeps using in ways that give me pause. That word is “but.”
“We’re not going to default. We’re not,” Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas told Axios two weeks ago. “But we need to have an honest conversation … [about] spending money we don’t have.”
There was a disconnect between the first part of that quote and the second. The first sentence was reassuring: There won’t be a default. The latter part, however, started with the word “but,” which necessarily raised doubts about the reliability of the first part.
Similarly,…
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