Donald Trump will likely secure the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday with the help of delegates he’ll win in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington state. But those wins will carry with them some danger for other Republicans who will be on the ballot in November.
Whatever you think of Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party, it has not been great for down-ballot candidates, especially those running in battleground House districts and swing states. It’s already hard to run your own race in a presidential election year, but Trump is a uniquely polarizing candidate.
In fact, since both parties now have their presumptive nominees in place, the 2024 general election is essentially underway already — almost eight months ahead of Election Day. That will be, by some accounts, the longest general election campaign ever. If you are a Republican running in a swing state or district, that means you are going to have to start your own campaign earlier, as well.
You’ll be asked about Trump’s latest social media post or speech on a regular basis.
Having Trump at the top of the ticket will make life harder for Republicans in competitive districts. You’ll be asked about his latest social media post or speech on a regular basis. The issues he highlights, either on purpose or inadvertently, will shape your own race. And he’ll suck up all the oxygen in politics, making it harder for you to get your message out.
I have worked with Republicans in deep blue states for decades, and this might be the toughest year I’ve seen for Republican candidates running in swing districts — yes, even harder than George W. Bush in 2004 or Mitt Romney in 2008. Presidential years are always much harder for Republican candidates in blue states because turnout is so much higher than midterm elections. For example, in New York turnout was 63% in 2020, compared with 43% in 2022. That means a lot more voters to try to persuade, and a lot bigger pile of voters who you’re never going…
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