The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in June to 109.7 (1985=100), up from 102.5 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 155.3 (1985=100) from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose to 79.3 (1985=100) from 71.5 in May. Expectations have remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year—every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. However, June’s reading was just a shade below 80 and up sharply from last month’s print.
“Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.”
“Assessments of the present situation rose in June on sunnier views of both business and employment conditions. Indeed, the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘not so plentiful’ widened, indicating upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform. Likewise, expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability.”
“While income expectations ticked down slightly in June, new questions included in this month’s release found a notably brighter outlook for consumers’ family finances: Around 30 percent expect their family’s financial situation to be ‘better’ in the next six months, compared to less than 14 percent expecting it to be ‘worse.’ This might reflect consumers’ belief that labor market…
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