The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in November to 113.05, from a downwardly revised 113.09 in October. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
“The ETI continued to trend downward after peaking in March 2022,” said Selcuk Eren, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “While the index is still elevated compared to its pre-pandemic level—and job gains are expected to continue in December and early 2024—the labor market shows clear signs of cooling with fewer opportunities available for jobseekers. With the labor market supply and demand coming into balance and consumer price inflation slowing, we believe the Federal Reserve will no longer increase interest rates.”
Eren added: “Over the last six months, payroll employment growth was almost entirely driven by healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government. Employment growth in these industries is less likely to be impacted by a recession, given acute labor shortages. Job growth in other industries has been flat or negative. Elsewhere, we see clear signs of cooling with several component indicators of the ETI pointing to loosening labor demand. The number of employees working in temporary help services—an important early indicator for hiring in other industries—resumed its decline in November from its peak in March 2022. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased for a second consecutive month in November, though they remain low historically. From The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®, the share of respondents that reported jobs were hard to get reached its highest level since March 2021, while a smaller share of small firms reported difficulties hiring. Looking ahead, we project that job…
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