Cox Automotive, the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider, forecasts new-vehicle sales volume in Q1 will increase by nearly 6% year over year, reaching 3.5 million units. Sales volume in March, the final month of Q1, is expected to be near 1.30 million, an increase of 2.6% from March 2022. Through Q1, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is forecast at 15.0 million, an increase of more than 6% compared to the 14.1 million SAAR in the first quarter of 2022.
A key driver of the increased sales is the vastly improved new-vehicle inventory level, which is up roughly 70% from the volume recorded in the early months of 2022. Sales in Q1 were also helped by a notable increase in fleet activity. Fleet sales in January were up 58% year-over-year. In February, fleet sales increased by 48%. A similar increase is expected in March.
Cox Automotive forecasts new-vehicle sales volume in the U.S. to increase by nearly 6% year over year in Q1.
“The stronger start to 2023 has led us to make positive revisions to our vehicle sales forecasts, but we continue to believe supply constraints and affordability issues will put a ceiling on what’s possible in the year ahead,” noted Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “With the job market still strong, the largest demand problem for automotive in 2023 will be rising interest rates that push many would-be buyers out of the market.”
Tesla Grabs More Share; GM Remains On Top
General Motors will finish Q1 as the No. 1 seller of new vehicles in the U.S. A year ago, Toyota was on top. Thanks mostly to improved inventory levels, Cox Automotive is forecasting GM sales to increase more than 15% year over year and reach 587,000 units. Sales, however, will be down from Q4 2022, when GM’s volume hit 618,692.
Tesla, which lowered prices in the first quarter to spark demand, is forecast to post solid sales gains and surpass market share of 5% for the first time. Tesla sales in Q1 are expected to reach 180,000,…
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