A world of self-driving vehicles and mobility-on-demand is likely to exist eventually, but for the next decade, widespread implementation of autonomous technology will not be realized, according to a new forecast from S&P Global Mobility. The report reflects findings from robust model-level forecasting that autonomous vehicle expectations have not been fulfilled and still face more headwinds – affording significant opportunity and scale to automated driving implementations in the interim.
For the next decade, autonomous tech will be limited to two specific areas: geofenced robotaxis operated by fleets in specific areas, and hands-off systems with various safeguards in personal vehicles that will still require some form of driver engagement.
The latest forecast from S&P Global Mobility notes that Level 5 Autonomy – “A vehicle that can go anywhere and do everything a human driver can,” will not be publicly available before 2035, “and probably for some time after that,” stated Jeremy Carlson, associate director for the autonomy practice at S&P Global Mobility. “But the outlook for more targeted implementations of the same fundamental technologies, especially in Level 2+ and Level 3 but also for some forms of Level 4, is more positive and will certainly happen on a much shorter timeline.”
This latest outlook from S&P Global Mobility reflects the headwinds and slower pace of development that both the automotive and tech industries have demonstrated over the past several years. It paints a stark contrast to the optimism of just five years ago when the world was swept up in the promise and excitement of a future of self-driving vehicles in Levels 4 and 5. Now, S&P Global Mobility presents a more realistic outlook amid this moderated pace of progress while also publishing new data on the intersection of autonomy and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS).
Automated – rather than autonomous – driving continues to be the focus of industry development. Today’s broad…
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