Customers walk through a shopping mall on March 15, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. Retail sales slipped 0.4 percent in February after being up more than 3 percent in January.
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Growth in the U.S. slowed considerably during the first three months of the year as interest rate increases and inflation took hold of an economy largely expected to decelerate even further ahead.
Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced for the period, rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.
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The growth rate followed a fourth quarter in which GDP climbed 2.6%, part of a year that saw a 2.1% increase.
The report also showed that the personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation measure that the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased 4.2%, ahead of the 3.7% estimate. High inflation and slow growth is sometimes described as “stagflation,” which characterized the late 1970s and early ’80s U.S. economy.
Stocks initially reacted little to the report, with major indexes pointing to a higher open. Treasury yields increased.
The slowdown in growth came due to a decline in private inventory investment and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, the report said. The inventory slowdown took 2.26 percentage points off the headline number.
Consumer spending as measured by personal consumption expenditures increased 3.7% and exports were up 4.8%. Gross private domestic investment tumbled 12.5%.
“The U.S. economy is likely at an inflection point as consumer spending has softened in recent months,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “The backward nature of the GDP report is possibly misleading for markets as we know consumers were still spending in January but since March, have pulled back as consumers are getting more pessimistic about the future.”
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