Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday’s report

The March nonfarm payrolls count likely will indicate hiring continuing at a solid pace, though some weakening foundations of the labor market could take greater focus when the Labor Department releases its key report Friday morning.

Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that’s correct, it will mark a slowdown from February’s initially reported 275,000 but is still a strong pace by historical terms.

Yet a funny thing has been happening with the jobs reports recently: Initially strong numbers have tended to be lowered in subsequent estimates, raising questions about whether the jobs situation is as positive as it looks.

That will be just one of several key areas in focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

February’s release raised eyebrows with a gain that trounced the Wall Street outlook for 198,000 new jobs. Also gaining notice, though, were revisions to the prior two months that reduced December’s count by 43,000 to 290,000 and January’s by a whopping 124,000 to 229,000.

For all of 2023, revisions took 520,000 off the initial estimates — there are three readings in total — countering a historical trend in which the final numbers are generally higher than the first readings.

The trend “makes me wonder about the credibility of the first number,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas. “So I’ll be looking for the revisions from the prior month to see if they’re going to be knocked down, and most likely they will be. That’s why if you get a big number, take it with a grain of salt.”

There is some anticipation on Wall Street of an upside surprise: Goldman Sachs raised its initial forecast to 240,000, an increase of 25,000, following strong private payroll data from ADP showing a gain of 184,000 on the month, and other…