Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill on March 06, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve has a lot to do at its meeting this week, but ultimately may not end up doing a whole lot in terms of changing the outlook for monetary policy.
In addition to releasing its rate decision after the meeting wraps up Wednesday, the central bank will update its economic projections as well as its unofficial forecast for the direction of interest rates over the next several years.
As expectations have swung sharply this year for where the Fed is headed, this week’s two-day session of the Federal Open Market Committee will draw careful scrutiny for any clues about the direction of interest rates.
Yet the general feeling is that policymakers will stick to their recent messaging, which has emphasized a patient, data-driven approach with no hurry to cut rates until there’s greater visibility on inflation.
“They’ll make it clear that they’re obviously not ready to cut rates. They need a few more data points to feel confident that inflation is heading back to target,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I expect them to reaffirm three rate cuts this year, so that would suggest the first rate cut would be in June.”
Markets have had to adjust to the Fed’s approach on the fly, scaling back both the timing and frequency of expected cuts this year. Earlier this year, traders in the fed funds futures market were anticipating the rate-cutting campaign to kick off in March and continue until the FOMC had cut the equivalent of six or seven times in quarter percentage points increments.
Now, the market has pushed out the timing until at least June, with only three cuts anticipated from the current target range of 5.25%-5.5% for the Fed’s benchmark overnight borrowing rate.
The swing in expectations will make how the Fed delivers its…
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