Russia has suspended its participation in a deal that let Ukraine ship its grain through its seaports, upending a pact that mitigated a global food crisis.
Since withdrawing on Monday, Russia has also launched strikes against Odesa, one of three critical Black Sea ports that exported Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products under the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Russia’s exit from the deal brokered less than a year ago by Turkey and the United Nations will make it even more challenging to export Ukrainian grain. That could destabilize global food prices and jeopardize the most food-insecure countries and populations, which often rely on agricultural exports. Russia’s decision, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.”
This didn’t come as a total surprise: The initiative was set to expire, and Russia had been substantially obstructing the deal even before it officially quit. The Kremlin denied its withdrawal was related to the likely Ukrainian-led attack on Kerch Bridge that links the Russian mainland to Crimea. Instead, Russia demanded more help with its own exports, essentially an ask for sanctions relief.
This deal existed to help avert a greater global crisis in food security, of which Russia’s war in Ukraine is just one part. Eliminating Ukrainian supplies may tighten agricultural markets and potentially put more pressure on places experiencing hunger emergencies. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates about 345 million people face high levels of food insecurity in 2023, with about 129,000 people potentially confronting famine in places like Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, and South Sudan.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was “never a panacea for Ukrainian agriculture,” said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute; even with some foodstuffs going out, high input costs, conflict, and Russian occupation have dramatically
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