Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by No Labels in New Hampshire Monday, fueling speculation that he might be the centrist group’s pick to launch a third-party “unity” ticket for the presidency.
Manchin hasn’t ruled out the possibility, and said in a statement last week put out by No Labels that it is “clear that most Americans are exceedingly frustrated by the growing divide in our political parties and toxic political rhetoric from our elected leaders.” But it’s hard to see how his flirtation with No Labels — a bipartisan group that once dubbed former President Donald Trump a “problem solver” and that criticized the committee investigating the January 6, 2021 insurrection — would amount to a serious candidacy.
It’s true that many Democrats don’t want Biden to run again, and many Republicans say the same of Trump, who is the current GOP frontrunner. But while 2024 may shape up to be the rematch no one asked for, third-party candidates don’t have a successful track record in the US, and there’s no indication a third-party candidate would be able to launch a credible challenge to either party’s nominee this time. If Manchin or another third-party candidate runs, they would probably lose badly.
They might, however, get enough support among moderates to derail Biden in states that he narrowly won in 2020, despite No Labels co-chair Joe Lieberman’s assurances that his group is not looking to get in the race for a “spoiler.”
“For a Democrat to win a national election, they need to win three out of five self-identified moderate voters,” said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a centrist-left policy and advocacy organization. “If you have a third-party candidate that is running from the center, it’s siphoning off those that consider themselves ideologically centrist, and Democrats are overly reliant on that block of voters.”
But the question is…
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